🔑 Key Takeaways
- 💳 American Express made $3.7 billion in profit last quarter, up 28% on a year ago.
- 📈 Revenue hit a record $20.1 billion, up 9%. Card members spent $454 billion.
- 🎯 Amex raised its 2026 earnings forecast to $18.30–$18.60 per share.
- 📉 Shares still fell about 3% on Friday morning. Revenue and spending were a touch below what analysts expected.
- ⚠️ Honest catch: part of the profit jump came from one-off items, like selling a stake in a travel business. Amex is also cutting about 5% of its jobs.
- 🔍 Want to dig deeper? Research American Express (AXP) and other card companies on Nemo.money, with zero commission and from $1.
⚡ The Short Version
American Express had a strong quarter. Profit rose. Revenue hit a record. The company raised its forecast for the year.
And the stock went down anyway.
This is not rare. It is one of the most common puzzles in investing. Today, Amex gives us a clean example of why “good news” and “stock goes up” are not the same thing.
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📊 The Numbers
Here is what Amex reported for July to September 2026, from its official earnings release:
- 💰 Profit: $3.71 billion, up 28% from $2.90 billion a year ago.
- 🧾 Earnings per share: $5.42, up 31%. Without one-off items: $4.68, up 13%.
- 📈 Revenue: $20.06 billion, up 9%. A record.
- 🛒 Card member spending: $454 billion, up 8%.
- 🏦 Money set aside for bad loans: $1.0 billion, down from $1.3 billion.
- 🎯 New 2026 forecast: $18.30–$18.60 per share, up from $17.30–$17.90 before.
On a “clean” basis, without one-off items, Amex expects $17.60–$17.90 per share for 2026.
✈️ Where People Are Spending
Amex customers tend to be higher earners. They kept spending, especially on travel and going out. From the earnings call:
- ✈️ Airline spending: up 13%
- 🍽️ Restaurant spending: up 9%
- 🌍 Spending outside the US: up 11%
- 💳 New cards: 3.1 million, with 76% on cards that charge an annual fee
- 💵 Card fees: $3 billion, up 17%. This is Amex’s fastest-growing income line.
That last one matters. People are paying more each year just to hold an Amex card. That is steady, repeat income.
📉 So Why Did the Stock Fall?
The shares closed at $325.17 on Thursday. On Friday morning they fell about 3%, to around $317 (24/7 Wall St. and Benzinga, shortly after the US open).
Analysts and reporters pointed to four things:
- 🔻 Revenue was a hair light. $20.06 billion vs about $20.12 billion expected.
- 🔻 Spending was slightly short too. $454 billion vs about $456.9 billion expected. Amex said exiting some small-business card partnerships was part of the reason.
- 🔻 A “lower quality” beat. Some of the profit came from one-offs. These included a $982 million pre-tax gain from selling a stake in Global Business Travel Group and a lower tax rate.
- 🔻 Job cuts. Amex booked a $336 million restructuring charge. It expects to cut about 5% of jobs worldwide.
Truist analyst Brian Foran told Reuters that, if the drop held, it would be the ninth time in 11 quarters Amex shares fell despite beating forecasts.
💡 The One Lesson
A stock moves on what happens versus what people expected, not on whether the news is good.
Before results, analysts publish forecasts. Investors buy and sell based on those forecasts. So by results day, “good” is already in the price.
Amex beat on profit. But revenue and spending came in just under hopes. And part of the profit beat came from one-off items, not everyday business. For many traders, that was enough to sell.
We saw the same pattern with Netflix earlier this week. New to this? Our beginner’s guide to reading an earnings report explains “beats”, “misses” and “guidance” in plain English.
⚖️ The Honest Catch
The case for caution:
- ⚠️ Without one-offs, profit grew 13%, not 28%. The headline number flatters the quarter.
- ⚠️ Revenue growth and spending were slightly below hopes.
- ⚠️ Marketing costs are rising. Amex expects them to grow about 10% in the second half.
- ⚠️ Amex earlier announced a $350 million anti-money-laundering penalty. Legal costs hit the quarter too.
- ⚠️ Higher earners drive Amex. If they cut back on travel and dining, Amex feels it fast.
The other side:
- ✅ Revenue is still growing about 10% a year, and Amex repeated that target.
- ✅ Card fees, which repeat every year, grew 17%.
- ✅ Late payments stayed steady at 1.2–1.3% for 15 quarters in a row, management said.
- ✅ Amex returned $2.2 billion to shareholders last quarter through buybacks and dividends.
- ✅ Management said the restructuring and legal costs should not affect its 2027 guidance.
🙋 What It Means for You
- 🧠 A one-day drop after results tells you about expectations. It does not, on its own, tell you a business is getting worse.
- 🔍 Always check the “adjusted” number next to the headline number. Today, 28% profit growth became 13% once one-offs were removed.
- 🧺 You do not need to pick single stocks. Amex is one of the companies in the S&P 500. Our guide to VOO and the S&P 500 shows how a single fund spreads your money across hundreds of companies.
- 📏 Stick to a plan. Our Top 10 rules of investing for beginners is a good place to start.
American Express (AXP) is mentioned as an example to research, not a recommendation.
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❓ FAQs
1. Why did American Express stock fall after beating earnings?
Revenue and card spending came in slightly below analyst forecasts. Part of the profit beat came from one-off items, like a stake sale and a lower tax rate. Amex also announced it will cut about 5% of its jobs.
2. How much profit did American Express make in Q3 2026?
Amex made $3.71 billion in the July–September quarter, up 28% from $2.90 billion a year earlier. Earnings per share were $5.42, or $4.68 without one-off items.
3. What is American Express’s 2026 earnings forecast?
Amex now expects $18.30 to $18.60 per share for 2026, up from $17.30 to $17.90. Without one-off items, it expects $17.60 to $17.90. It also expects about 10% revenue growth for the year.
4. Is American Express stock a good buy?
There are two sides. Supporters point to record revenue, 17% growth in card fees, steady late-payment rates and $2.2 billion returned to shareholders last quarter. Sceptics point to slightly light revenue and spending, rising marketing costs, job cuts and a profit beat helped by one-offs. Look at both before you decide.
5. Is American Express cutting jobs?
Yes. Amex booked a $336 million restructuring charge and expects to eliminate about 5% of its roles worldwide. Investing.com reported this as roughly 3,500 positions.
🏁 Final Thoughts
Amex had a record quarter and raised its forecast. The market still shrugged. That is not a contradiction. It is how markets work: prices reflect expectations, and the details behind the headline matter.
Read past the headline. Check the adjusted number. Then decide what you think.
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