Key Takeaways
- The biggest IPO in history may be coming: Anthropic, maker of the Claude AI models, is moving toward a listing that could value it above $2 trillion, more than double its $965 billion private valuation from May and ahead of SpaceX's record $1.77 trillion June debut, with reports pointing to a possible post-midterms November window on the Nasdaq.
- The leaked prospectus shows both engines at full throttle: revenue rose roughly twelvefold to nearly $4.6 billion in 2025 (from about $400 million), and hit $11.5 billion in the second quarter of 2026 alone, with a second straight quarter of operating profit reported, according to the prospectus reviewed by Reuters and FT reporting.
- And the bills are equally historic: 2025 brought an operating loss above $8 billion and a net loss of $42 billion (mostly writedowns tied to earlier fundraising, per Reuters), alongside commitments to spend at least $518 billion on computing over a decade, about 80% of it payable regardless of how much computing Anthropic actually uses.
- The dependence is spelled out in the filing: roughly 47% of 2025 revenue flowed through the cloud platforms of Amazon and Google, which are also Anthropic's major investors and suppliers, and two unnamed customers produced nearly a quarter of revenue, most large clients on no long-term contract.
- The honest catch: retail investors can't buy yet, a $2 trillion debut prices in extraordinary expectations, and nearly a third of the filing is risk factors, including, unusually candidly, risks from the company's own AI models.
- Research it your way: you can invest in global stocks and ETFs from just $1 with zero commission on the Nemo.money app.
Introduction
The AI boom's next milestone has a prospectus. Anthropic, the company behind the Claude models, is preparing an initial public offering that reports suggest could value it above $2 trillion, which would make it one of the largest listings in stock-market history, bigger than SpaceX's record-setting June debut, and the first time ordinary investors can own a frontier AI lab directly.
Late in September, Reuters obtained and reported the company's draft prospectus, and the numbers read like two different companies stapled together. One is growing faster than almost any business ever measured: revenue up roughly twelvefold in a year to nearly $4.6 billion, then $11.5 billion in a single quarter of 2026, now operating profitably by the FT's account. The other is spending like a nation-state: an operating loss above $8 billion last year, a $42 billion net loss (mostly accounting writedowns from earlier fundraising), and at least $518 billion committed to computing power over the next decade, four-fifths of it payable whether or not the computing gets used.
This guide walks through what the filing actually says, the growth, the Big Tech entanglements it discloses, the risk factors (unusually, including warnings about its own AI models), and what a retail investor in the Gulf can and can't do about any of it today. It's educational, not investment advice. If it prompts you to research the theme, you can explore global stocks and ETFs from just $1 with zero commission on the Nemo.money app.
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What's Happening
The timeline and numbers, all per the prospectus as reported by Reuters (28-29 September) and subsequent coverage:
- 📅 The path to listing. Anthropic confidentially filed a draft S-1 with the SEC on 1 June 2026, following a $65 billion Series H round in May at a $965 billion post-money valuation. In late September its draft prospectus leaked to Reuters, and reports point to a listing, expected on the Nasdaq, possibly after the US midterm elections in November, at a valuation that could exceed $2 trillion.
- 🚀 Growth with few precedents. Revenue rose about 1,088% in 2025, from roughly $400 million to nearly $4.6 billion, and the acceleration continued: $4.73 billion in Q1 2026, $11.5 billion in Q2, with annualised run-rate revenue reported at $65 billion by July, and, per the FT, a second consecutive quarter of operating profit.
- 💸 Spending with few precedents either. 2025 operating expenses reached about $13 billion against that $4.6 billion of revenue, for an operating loss above $8 billion (versus $2.98 billion in 2024). The headline $42 billion net loss mostly reflects writedowns of liabilities tied to earlier fundraising rather than cash burned, per Reuters, and the company ended 2025 with $20.28 billion in cash and short-term investments.
- 🏗️ The $518 billion commitment. Anthropic has pledged at least $518 billion of computing spend over the next decade across six partners, the plan we covered when it was announced, and the prospectus adds the crucial fine print: about 80% of it is payable regardless of how much computing Anthropic actually uses.
- 🏛️ Governance and candour. Coverage of the filing highlights founder-control arrangements that limit public shareholders' power, and notes that nearly a third of the document is risk factors, including the company's own research showing increasingly autonomous AI models can behave in unexpected and potentially harmful ways in controlled tests, unusual candour for a company selling exactly that technology.
What the Filing Reveals: The Big Tech Entanglement
The prospectus's most analytically interesting disclosures concern how deeply Anthropic's business runs through a handful of giants, by Reuters' and TradingKey's accounts of the document:
- ☁️ Nearly half the revenue arrives through two landlords. About $2.16 billion of 2025 sales, roughly 47% of revenue, came through the cloud marketplaces of Amazon and Google. Both are also among Anthropic's largest investors, and both supply the computing it runs on. The same companies are, simultaneously, shareholder, supplier and sales channel.
- 🎯 Two customers are nearly a quarter of revenue. The filing discloses that two unnamed customers each contributed about 12% of 2025 revenue, and warns that many of its largest clients hold no long-term contracts and could reduce or stop spending at any time.
- 🔌 The compute bill is largely unconditional. 2025 compute spending was about $7.33 billion, and the decade-long $518 billion commitment is roughly 80% non-cancelable, a structure that transfers enormous risk onto Anthropic if AI demand ever disappoints, and guarantees revenue to its suppliers either way.
- 🔁 The circularity question, again. As with Nvidia's investments in its own customers, money in the AI economy keeps flowing in loops: Big Tech invests in Anthropic, Anthropic commits the money back to Big Tech's clouds and chip suppliers, and the revenue it earns often arrives through the investors' own platforms. None of this is improper, it's all disclosed, but it means several giants' accounts are now partly reflections of one another, which investors in any of them should understand. How consuming these entanglements have become shows up in odd places: Amazon recently shelved a finished film rather than complicate a $50 billion AI deal, that one involving OpenAI, and the same gravitational pull applies across the handful of giants funding every frontier lab.
The AI IPO Moment
This listing wouldn't arrive in a vacuum, it would crown a year in which the AI economy went public in stages.
- 🚀 The precedent is fresh. SpaceX's June IPO at $1.77 trillion proved public markets would absorb a mega-listing; Anthropic above $2 trillion would immediately eclipse it as the benchmark debut, and coverage frames the AI IPO class, Anthropic, and eventually OpenAI, as historic events in waiting.
- 📊 The multiple depends on which revenue you believe. At $2 trillion against 2025's recognised $4.6 billion, the multiple looks absurd (400x-plus); against the reported $65 billion July run-rate, it's roughly 31x, demanding, but in the territory of past hyper-growth debuts. That gap, between audited trailing revenue and sprinting run-rate, is exactly where the IPO's pricing debate will live, and where coverage says bankers are anchoring.
- 🏛️ The policy backdrop is warming to it. Washington has been formalising its AI stance, including naming an AI policy czar, and a mega-listing of a safety-focused lab would hand public markets their first direct vote on frontier AI economics, a vote currently expressed only sideways, through the chipmakers and cloud giants.
- 🌍 For Gulf investors, it's a familiar shape at new scale. The region knows mega-IPOs (Aramco's remains the local reference point); what's new is a loss-making, decade-committed research lab asking for twice Aramco's debut valuation on a fraction of its revenue, the purest test yet of how much future the market will pay for today.
The Honest Catch
A transparency reminder first: this article was drafted with AI tools including Claude, Anthropic's own model, which is precisely why this section pulls no punches. The risks, straight from the filing and the coverage:
- 🚫 You can't buy it yet, and the first price you can get is rarely the headline price. Pre-IPO shares sit with institutions and insiders; retail investors typically buy only once trading opens, often after an opening pop, and IPO history is littered with hot debuts that traded below their first-day prices for years after. Excitement about a company and a good entry into its stock are different things.
- 📉 A $2 trillion debut prices in near-perfection. More than double May's private round, 400x trailing recognised revenue, roughly 31x even the July run-rate: the valuation assumes revenue keeps compounding toward the hundreds of billions and margins mature on schedule. Any stumble, a slower quarter, a price war with OpenAI and Google, a capex digestion cycle at its customers, meets a price with little room in it.
- ⛓️ The commitments are asymmetric. Roughly 80% of $518 billion is payable regardless of use. If AI demand compounds as planned, that's cheap capacity locked early; if it doesn't, Anthropic owes nation-state sums for computing it no longer needs. The filing's own risk factors acknowledge the bet's scale.
- 🤝 Dependence cuts every direction. Nearly half of revenue arrives through two companies that are also investors and suppliers; two customers are a quarter of revenue on short contracts; and rivals (OpenAI, Google's own models, Meta's open-source releases) are funded by some of the same giants. Few companies this large have ever had this concentrated a set of counterparties.
- 🗳️ Public shareholders would hold limited power. Coverage of the filing highlights founder-control governance, meaning buyers of the listed shares would own the economics with restricted influence, standard for tech mega-IPOs, still worth knowing before treating the stock as ownership in the usual sense.
- 🤖 And the filing's most unusual risk factor is the product itself. Anthropic discloses its own research showing advanced models can behave in unexpected, potentially harmful ways in tests. Whatever one makes of that philosophically, financially it means the company's core asset carries regulatory, reputational and liability risks that conventional businesses don't, disclosed, unquantifiable, and part of the price.
The takeaway: this would be the most consequential listing in years and one priced for extraordinary outcomes, and both facts deserve equal weight. Nobody should mistake historical significance for guaranteed returns.
What It Means for Investors
For anyone weighing the theme, with every name an example to research, not a recommendation:
- ⏳ Today, there is nothing to buy, and that's worth saying plainly. Anthropic is private; no app, including Nemo, can offer its shares before a listing, and anything claiming to sell "pre-IPO Anthropic" access to retail investors deserves extreme scepticism. The honest moves today are research and patience.
- 🔍 The indirect exposure already trades. The companies the prospectus names are public: Amazon and Google (investors, clouds, sales channels), and the chip and infrastructure suppliers in line for the $518 billion, the beneficiaries we mapped when the spending plan was announced. Owning them is a different bet (diversified giants versus a pure lab), with different risk.
- 📅 If and when it lists, the homework is pre-written. The prospectus hands you the checklist: revenue run-rate versus the $65 billion July figure, whether operating profit holds, customer-concentration disclosures, and the first earnings guidance. First-day price action will dominate headlines; those four lines will decide the investment.
- 🧭 Know what an IPO allocation really is. For retail investors, 'buying the IPO' usually means buying in the open market on day one, at whatever the pop sets, with insider lockups expiring months later. Researching how past mega-debuts traded through their first year, including SpaceX's, is better preparation than any forecast.
How to Research the Theme with Nemo.money
While Anthropic itself remains private, the ecosystem around it is fully researchable on the Nemo.money app:
- Invest from Just $1: Fractional investing across the listed AI ecosystem, clouds, chipmakers, infrastructure, without buying whole shares.
- Zero-Commission Trading: Buy and sell US-market stocks and ETFs without commission fees.
- AI-Powered Insights & Nemes: Explore data, sentiment and curated themed collections (Nemes), including AI and tech themes, as a research starting point (for research, not recommendations).
- Earn 6% AER on Idle Cash: Uninvested cash in your wallet earns 6% AER, paid daily in USD, while you research, or while you wait for a listing.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
When is the Anthropic IPO?
No date is confirmed. Anthropic confidentially filed a draft S-1 with the SEC on 1 June 2026, and its draft prospectus, reported by Reuters in late September, is the basis of current coverage. Reports suggest a listing could come after the US midterm elections in November 2026, expected on the Nasdaq, but timing depends on SEC review, market conditions and the company's own choices, and IPOs are routinely delayed.
How much is Anthropic worth?
Its last confirmed private valuation was $965 billion, set in May 2026's $65 billion Series H round. Coverage of the IPO prospectus reports a targeted listing valuation above $2 trillion, which would more than double the May figure and rank among the largest debuts in history, ahead of SpaceX's $1.77 trillion June 2026 IPO. Against 2025's recognised revenue of about $4.6 billion that implies an extreme multiple; against the reported July 2026 run-rate of $65 billion, roughly 31 times, still demanding. The final number will be set in the offering itself.
What did Anthropic's IPO prospectus reveal?
Per Reuters' review: 2025 revenue of nearly $4.6 billion, up about twelvefold from roughly $400 million in 2024; operating expenses of about $13 billion for an operating loss above $8 billion; a $42 billion net loss, mostly writedowns tied to earlier fundraising rather than cash costs; $20.28 billion in cash and short-term investments at year-end; commitments of at least $518 billion to computing over a decade, about 80% payable regardless of usage; roughly 47% of 2025 revenue arriving through Amazon's and Google's cloud platforms; two customers at nearly a quarter of revenue; founder-control governance; and extensive risk factors, including risks from its own AI models. Subsequent reporting adds Q2 2026 revenue of $11.5 billion and a second straight quarter of operating profit.
Can I buy Anthropic stock now?
No. Anthropic is a private company; its shares are held by employees and institutional investors and are not available to retail investors, on Nemo.money or any other retail platform, and offers of "pre-IPO Anthropic shares" to the public should be treated with extreme caution. If the company completes its IPO, its shares would then trade on a US exchange like any listed stock. Until then, the listed companies around it, its Big Tech investors and cloud providers, and the chipmakers in line for its committed spending, are the researchable routes to the theme. These are examples to research, not recommendations.
How can I invest when big IPOs happen?
For retail investors, access usually begins when the shares start trading on the exchange, typically after an opening price is set by early demand, and lockup expiries months later can add volatility. Researching the prospectus fundamentals (revenue trajectory, profitability, concentration risks) matters more than the first day's headlines. On the Nemo.money app you can research and invest in eligible US-listed stocks and ETFs from $1 with zero commission once a company is public, with uninvested cash earning 6% AER, paid daily in USD, while you wait and research.
Final Thoughts: The Market's First Vote on Frontier AI
Every era gets an IPO that doubles as a referendum. The railways had theirs, the dot-coms had theirs, and if Anthropic lists at anything like the reported numbers, frontier AI gets its own: the first chance for public markets, and the ordinary investors inside them, to put a daily price on a company whose product is intelligence itself, whose bills run to half a trillion dollars, and whose own filing devotes a third of its pages to what could go wrong, up to and including its models misbehaving.
The prospectus's deepest lesson sits in its two ledgers. One shows the fastest revenue scaling most investors will ever witness; the other shows commitments so large and so unconditional that the company has effectively bet itself on the AI century arriving on schedule. Both ledgers are real. Whenever the listing comes, the useful preparation isn't picking a side in advance, it's knowing exactly which numbers will tell you who was right, and reading them yourself rather than the headlines about them. That's as true for this company as for any other, and, full transparency once more, this article's drafting tools come from the company in question, which is exactly why we've kept every claim pinned to the public record.
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